“Facts” Without Knowledge: How Many Trans Women Have HIV?

If you are active in trans advocacy, you’ve seen various estimates for HIV in trans women: 42% (CDC)! 14% (Also CDC)! 24–28% (Baral, et. al.)!

I suspect none of these are right, and I think all over-estimate HIV prevalence among trans women. I recognize that’s a minority position — advocacy groups who depend on public health funding like to tout high numbers, as do HIV outreach organizations trying to convince trans women of the risk they may have of contracting HIV, much like the oft-cited, but wrong, 35-year-old estimate for the…